GOLD Forecast

Gold is in a consolidation phase following an upward impulse. The ongoing consolidation is likely to persist due to the presence of a robust resistance zone above. In my analysis, the price, currently in an accumulation phase, holds the potential for a fresh extension. The price pattern is characterized by an impulse leg followed by a range zone, forming a recurring sequence. Anticipating either a retest of the daily resistance zone or a market displaying choppy behavior, my target is set at the resistance zone, approximately around 2062.

The price is consolidating within a robust resistance zone. In my analysis, there's a potential scenario where the market rebounds from the support level and the upward trendline. Considering a prior bounce from this level, it signals a possible upward movement, especially since the market is establishing new swing highs and higher lows. A triangle formation is taking shape, and I anticipate a bearish move to capture liquidity beneath the formation before resuming the upward trend. My objective is the central resistance zone at 2050.

The recent price movement aligns seamlessly with my prior analysis. The price has attained a formidable resistance zone at 2050. Historical data indicates previous pullbacks from this level. Notably, the price exhibits indications of a possible false breakout from the resistance on the 4-hour timeframe. It is my belief that the market could experience a pullback from this resistance. Examining the daily timeframe, the price has encountered a robust resistance zone where downward pressure was observed. My target is a support level situated around 2005.

Gold achieved a recent peak but experienced a slowdown in momentum. My expectation is that the market could undergo a retracement towards the support at 2000–2002, the location of prior impulse movements. Should the price decline to the support level, a reevaluation of the recent resistance zone becomes a likely scenario. Notably, on the daily timeframe, the market successfully breached and consolidated above the former resistance, signaling a prevailing bullish sentiment. My target is set at the resistance zone, approximately around 2022.

The recent price movement aligns seamlessly with my prior analysis. The price is currently advancing towards a resistance point. Gold has achieved a new peak, surpassing the significant level of 2000. In the event that the price descends towards the support level, the upward trendline, and the channel border, we can anticipate a rebound and a subsequent continuation of the upward trend. The support level has undergone testing twice, amplifying its importance. An alternative scenario involves the price dropping below the support level, constituting a false breakout. My target is the preceding resistance zone, situated around 2030.

Technical Analysis for XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) - 1-Hour Chart

At the time of analysis, XAU/USD is trading at 1995.73.

OSCILLATORS:

• Buy: Momentum (10), MACD Level (12, 26)
• Neutral: Relative Strength Index (14), Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3), Commodity Channel Index (20), Average Directional Index (14), Awesome Oscillator, Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14), Bull Bear Power, Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28)
• Sell: Williams Percent Range (14)

Oscillators Summary: The oscillators present a mixed outlook, with Momentum and MACD Level signaling a buy, while Williams Percent Range suggests caution with a sell signal.

MOVING AVERAGES:

• Buy: All Exponential and Simple Moving Averages
• Neutral: Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)
• Sell: None

Moving Averages Summary: The moving averages are unanimously bullish, supporting a buy sentiment, with no sell signals.

PIVOT POINTS:

• Pivot: 1968.635
• Classic: 1968.635
• Fibonacci: 1968.635
• Camarilla: 1971.659
• Woodie: 1974.849

Pivot Points Summary: Pivot points are in alignment with the current market price, indicating a neutral stance with no explicit buy or sell signals.

GOLD FORECAST: Gold encountered resistance, resulting in a decline after forming a double top pattern. The market currently shows a slow pace, characterized by a triangle pattern. Anticipating a potential buying opportunity if the price descends towards the support zone (1984–1988), there's a possibility of a false breakout from the triangle, followed by an upward move, continuing the ranging behavior. The objective is set at the resistance zone around 1999.50.

Analysis Summary: The technical indicators provide mixed signals, with oscillators offering a cautious outlook due to the sell signal in Williams Percent Range. However, moving averages unanimously support a bullish sentiment. Pivot points suggest a neutral stance. The forecast indicates the potential for a rebound from the support zone.

Possible Scenarios:

1. Bearish Scenario (SELL):
   • If the price breaks below the support zone (1984–1988) and shows signs of further decline, consider short positions.
   • Set a stop-loss above the triangle pattern resistance.
2. Bullish Scenario (BUY):
   • In the event of a bounce from the support zone, consider long positions.
   • Monitor for a breakout above the triangle pattern resistance for confirmation.

Probability of Market Direction:

• Probability of a SELL scenario: 40%
• Probability of a BUY scenario: 60%

Percentage Calculated Possibilities:

• Percentage chance of XAUUSD falling: 40%
• Percentage chance of XAUUSD rising: 60%

Gold encountered resistance, leading to a decline after establishing a double top pattern. The market exhibits a sluggish pace, marked by the formation of a triangle pattern. My anticipation is that if the price descends towards the support zone in the range of 1984–1988, it could present a buying opportunity. I foresee the possibility of a false breakout from the triangle formation, followed by an upward move, thereby continuing the ranging behavior. My objective is set at the resistance zone, approximately around 1999.50.

The recent price action aligns seamlessly with my preceding analysis. It rebounded from a significant support level. Following the formation of a double top, the price tested the resistance and retraced towards the support level. Gold is currently in a ranging phase after reaching a recent peak. This ranging behavior may persist due to the presence of a robust resistance zone above. I anticipate a reevaluation of the recent resistance zone, resulting in market choppiness. I believe the price is in an accumulation phase, poised to break and close above. My target is set at the resistance zone, approximately around 2007.50.

The price successfully penetrated the 2000 resistance zone following the release of recent news. A rejection candle formed in the market, indicating potential pullbacks. My anticipation is that the market will surpass the prior resistance to assess the liquidity above it. I foresee a retracement from this level, and the upward movement is expected to resume from the support level unless the upcoming news alters the trend direction. My objective is set at the resistance point of 2013.

The recent price movement aligns seamlessly with my previous analysis. It successfully reached the predetermined target. The market is progressing towards the crucial resistance level. There is a possibility that the price might establish a potential double-top pattern or exhibit a rejection candle, indicating an imminent pullback. Additionally, there is already a divergence present on the 4-hour timeframe. I speculate that gold could experience a downward movement by simulating a false breakout of the previous weekly high and retesting the 2000 level. Anticipating a brief retracement from the resistance zone, my target is set at the support area around 1985.365.