Technical Analysis for XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) - 1-Hour Chart
At the time of analysis, XAU/USD is trading at 1995.73.
OSCILLATORS:
- Buy: Momentum (10), MACD Level (12, 26)
- Neutral: Relative Strength Index (14), Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3), Commodity Channel Index (20), Average Directional Index (14), Awesome Oscillator, Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14), Bull Bear Power, Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28)
- Sell: Williams Percent Range (14)
Oscillators Summary: The oscillators present a mixed outlook, with Momentum and MACD Level signaling a buy, while Williams Percent Range suggests caution with a sell signal.
MOVING AVERAGES:
- Buy: All Exponential and Simple Moving Averages
- Neutral: Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)
- Sell: None
Moving Averages Summary: The moving averages are unanimously bullish, supporting a buy sentiment, with no sell signals.
PIVOT POINTS:
- Pivot: 1968.635
- Classic: 1968.635
- Fibonacci: 1968.635
- Camarilla: 1971.659
- Woodie: 1974.849
Pivot Points Summary: Pivot points are in alignment with the current market price, indicating a neutral stance with no explicit buy or sell signals.
GOLD FORECAST: Gold encountered resistance, resulting in a decline after forming a double top pattern. The market currently shows a slow pace, characterized by a triangle pattern. Anticipating a potential buying opportunity if the price descends towards the support zone (1984–1988), there's a possibility of a false breakout from the triangle, followed by an upward move, continuing the ranging behavior. The objective is set at the resistance zone around 1999.50.
Analysis Summary: The technical indicators provide mixed signals, with oscillators offering a cautious outlook due to the sell signal in Williams Percent Range. However, moving averages unanimously support a bullish sentiment. Pivot points suggest a neutral stance. The forecast indicates the potential for a rebound from the support zone.
Possible Scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario (SELL):
- If the price breaks below the support zone (1984–1988) and shows signs of further decline, consider short positions.
- Set a stop-loss above the triangle pattern resistance.
- Bullish Scenario (BUY):
- In the event of a bounce from the support zone, consider long positions.
- Monitor for a breakout above the triangle pattern resistance for confirmation.
Probability of Market Direction:
- Probability of a SELL scenario: 40%
- Probability of a BUY scenario: 60%
Percentage Calculated Possibilities:
- Percentage chance of XAUUSD falling: 40%
- Percentage chance of XAUUSD rising: 60%